Updated – Tiger Woods Returns From The Dead

Update: Well, I got one thing right and a couple of things wrong – I didn’t think Molinari would lose the Masters with a two-stroke lead into the final round, I didn’t think Tiger Woods would win a 15th major… but what a weekend of golf watching!!! /update

It doesn’t matter who wins the Masters this year, it should be a great finish with the current Leaderboard.

So many stories abound, with the players just at -6 and if recent history holds, the group at -7 from which the winner is favored to come (Francesco Molinari, Jason Day, Brooks Koepka, Adam Scott and Louis Oosthuizen), and I’ll tell you my reasons why.

I know Tiger Woods is everyone’s favorite to win, sitting 1 off the lead, and he very well could win due to 3 reasons I can think of:

  1. He’s swinging easier now, and as I’ve said, TW is a good enough golfer to win with any swing, provided he’s not playing hurt, however ugly his driver/irons/putting are on any given day,
  2. He’s won 4 Green Jackets already and
  3. He’s won more majors than the rest of the leaders put together.

Those are my reasons Tiger could be putting on the Green Jacket tomorrow evening, but I think it’s more likely going to be someone from the group at -7 for the following reasons:

  1. TW has never won a major coming from behind, which means he’s not yet in his kill-zone, and will have to beat the 5 players ahead of him,
  2. Recent history has had the winner holding or sharing the 36 hole lead, further strengthening TW’s need to have the best 3rd round out of everyone at -6 or -7 and likely again on Sunday,
  3. Everyone at -7 has won a major, with 2 players having won majors last season (recent form), so they aren’t likely to melt at the sight of TW on the leaderboard,
  4. They have all won majors since TW’s last major victory,
  5. If you have 5 players in the leading group, these 5 have bettered TW over 36 holes and I wouldn’t bet on TW beating them all over the next 36 holes and finally
  6. For those thinking TW is going into the weekend with the momentum, 4 of the 5 players ahead of him shot equal or better scores than him yesterday (Brooks shot -1 to TW’s -4, one shot equal -4 and the other 3 shot better scores with 2 going -5 and the other -6).

Mathematically speaking, my money would go on someone at -7 primarily because of reasons 5 and 6 above – however well TW is playing, 5 others have played better to this point and he has to beat all 5 of them over the next 36 holes, which is possible but not something to bet the house on.

There’s also the added element of major winners lurking from -6 to -4 (including multiple major winner Dustin Johnson at -6 and multiple major winner and 3 Green Jackets holder Phil Mickelson at -4), as well as other players at -6, any one of whom could have a monster moving day and be holding a share of or solo lead by tomorrow!

So, who’s going to win?

Who knows?!?

But again, I’d have to bet on someone at -7 if you gave me a free roll. And if you made me pick a horse – classic swinging ’18 Open Championship and ’19 API Champion Francesco Molinari!

DJ’s Pick – Molinari


That, however, is the reason you play all four rounds before handing out the prizes – anything can and will likely happen today, setting up a fabulous weekend for golf fans who like the big horses coming down the stretch on major Sunday.

Great news for me as well, the golf facilities will be opening in my area this weekend. I won’t be able to make it to hit balls today, and there is rain and cold forecast for Sunday and Monday, so I’ll likely not be out until Tuesday at the earliest.

The rain and cold however give me the perfect excuse to park myself in front of the TV tomorrow afternoon and enjoy watching the final round live, which I rarely do.

Have a great weekend, all, and I’ll see you on the other side!

DJ


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14 thoughts on “Updated – Tiger Woods Returns From The Dead

  1. Brandon

    I got Brooks just slightly ahead of Woods with Johnson my sentimental favorite, but the biggest reason I have Eldrick so high is because the reason he didn’t go low Thursday is the reason he creeped up the board yesterday.

    He missed alot of putts Thursday that should’ve put him at -5 going into friday and yesterday his putter came alive while he had a few ballstriking mishaps. Watching yesterday when he hit a few long putts, I got that feeling like when he used to dominate where he would hit a putt and about 2/3rds the way to the hole something would say, “that’s going in.”

    Haven’t had that feeling in a decade. I am not saying his putter is back(he did 3 putt yesterday) but if it gets hot, he is dangerous and add to that the fact he hasn’t had any BLOW UP holes and good irons under control, that wounded cat is a bit more dangerous to me than 2 Aussies where one has not made any noise this year really and the other is a ticking time bomb of bad back issues which commentators were discussing early this week, then a south african who I didn’t know was even in the tournament.

    They say soft conditions favor longer hitters and to an extent that is true but I believe soft conditions favors the irons that naturally fly higher because it allows more aggressive attacks at pins. For that, give me Brooks, Woods and Day(if his back holds up). Just my Opinion

    Reply
    1. D Watts Post author

      Just my Opinion…

      Hey, mine is only mine as well, and you’ll all have your own, BR! 🙂

      I would have Koepka in my book as co-fav with Molinari (but Molinari having the edge after BK’s round yesterday), and DJ’s my 3rd pick based on DJ being DJ.

      Woods is never out of it at Augusta National but until he wins another Green Jacket, I don’t put him as favorite if not clear by a couple of strokes teeing off on Sunday.

      Reply
  2. D Watts Post author

    Looking at a couple of TW’s drives on the 1st three holes (he hit an easy 3w on 1st tee), he’s looking a little off-balance and swinging harder than he has been recently. He’ll have to tighten it up with the leaders going out now, as he’s 0-2 fairways with driver:

    Reply
  3. D. Moriarty

    If Finau has a decent day tomorrow, he can lock this one up. I put some money in him on Thursday since I saw the weather would be favoring the long hitters.
    I still cant count Tiger out, even if hes not a “come from behind” type of winner.

    Reply
    1. D Watts Post author

      Has Finau played in the last group on a major Sunday yet? I can’t recall, but the first time’s usually not a great experience.

      I still like Molinari, who has a 2 stroke lead, beat TW last year playing together in the last grouping to win the Open Championship, and also beat him head-to-head in last year’s Ryder Cup singles.

      Just saying. He’s been there, done that, and he is just flawless right now.

      Another reason, it’s supposed to be windy tomorrow which will make Augusta National play more like a links course… see the 2nd paragraph!

      But I wouldn’t put it past TW to win his first come-from-behind major, because I’m pretty sure the winner will come from the last group.

      The only negative is that I may have to miss miss my Liverpool team playing Chelsea tomorrow at 11;30 am – the match would be wrapping up right around the leaders are on the final couple of holes and who’s going to miss the back 9 on Masters Sunday?

      Why, why couldn’t they have played on a Saturday this weekend?!?

      Reply
  4. Walter

    DJ,
    Did you watch the 3rd round where Peter Kostis did an analysis of Brooks (Mr. Elite Golfer-haha) Koepka’s swing speed. Showing that his driver head speed actually slowed down (126 to 120mph) just over 6mph from it’s fastest speed at about 1.5′ before contact to the speed at ball contact.

    Replaying that clip over and over it looks like the reason is because at the point where the speed slows down is the point where his wrists stop turning into the swing. What are your thoughts on this, hopefully you saw it. Reminds me of what Mike Austin says in one of his videos about you can’t push or pull the hands through, you have to throw the clubhead and fully release the wrists at the ball, and cocking/uncocking the wrists right at the ball doesn’t get max speed.

    Reply
    1. D Watts Post author

      I certainly saw that, Walter!

      Sounds like more Peter Kostis gobbledy-gook to me – did they study a whole range of swingers or, as I suspect, did they see this one golfer with this slow-down and proceed to that proves XYZ” with regards to club speed?

      Or even that this is something they’re realizing just now and are desperate to make it seem natural, because of their junky Modern Golf Swing concepts?

      You can’t take anything in isolation, if you’re going to make a blanket statement. I’d like to see the research data on that, because for a natural descending pendulum, the only thing that would slow a club head down before it reached the swing bottom would be, as you say, the swinger doing something to interfere with the motion.

      Knowing that so many golfers think that a natural release is “flipping,” I would suspect that Brooks is trying to “dead-wrist” through impact, which would slow the clubhead down before impact.

      In fact, I wrote a piece on that a while back, so thanks to Peter Kostis for showing us all how junky the modern swing and all of its concepts are!

      And thanks for the next blog posting on this, Walter! 😉

      Reply
  5. Walter

    Hi DJ,
    Thanks for the link on the piece you wrote a while back. For some reason I haven’t been getting your blog emails since January.

    Reply
    1. D Watts Post author

      Very welcome, Walter.

      targettom has been having the same issue with getting email alerts and even being able to comment. I have no idea what the issue is, as I’ve not done anything at all to change the alerts and comments settings.

      Probably a WordPress issue, and I unfortunately don’t have the programming chops to look into it – that’s why I let WordPress host the site and let me just post!

      Reply
  6. Walter

    DJ, Great read on that piece about flipping. My next question would be what’s a good drill to make sure or to teach yourself to have your wrists fulling released at impact.

    Reply
    1. D Watts Post author

      This is the whole crux of the MCS setup with the positioning and measurement, Walter – once you’re in the proper setup, including ball position, all you have to do is swing down and let the club release through the bottom.

      The right wrist action will keep the club moving until the shaft and forearm form a straight line shortly after impact, after which it’s just the momentum of the club and body that keep it going through to the finish. That’s what you see in all natural release swings!

      The only thought I have when swinging is to come down into the bottom. It’s like swinging with nothing there, then you do the same thing and just let the ball get in the way. No hand-eye coordination required once you get the proper setup nailed. Just swinging 😀

      Reply
  7. Walter

    Thanks for the swing thoughts.

    As for not getting emails I guess I’ll just have to check back once in a while. I didn’t do anything different on my end, but then again you just never know every time MS does an update what changes it will make to the way it operates. Gotta love MS, haha.

    Reply
    1. D Watts Post author

      It’s a mystery. I myself had had it with Android and MS, which is why I switched to an iPhone despite their pricey nature. Well, that and the excellent slo-mo feature on the iPhone which I can’t wait to get going on. 😉 I’m also looking into switching to an Apple computer or iPad Pro for my website and video-making.

      I’ve suggested things to targettom all to no avail. Have you tried un-following and then re-following, perhaps with a secondary email, or the same one? Alas, I have no clue why this happens.

      Reply

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